MadMax
06-29-2002, 12:03 PM
add Adelphia and Xerox to the mix...this is a pessimist...trying to get your green...the Weiss service is only $5,000 large... :bs you have to watch these personality types...they play on emotion and reap millions...
June 29, 2002
Dear MadMax,
WorldCom, Enron, Xerox, Adelphia, Global Crossing, Tyco
-- the list of companies "plagued" by accounting
"irregularities" grows longer by the day. The worst part:
This fraud isn't isolated to just a few miscreants -- it's
widespread and it's just beginning.
And yet, investors have been fairly restrained in their
selling. The major indexes have actually shrugged off the
WorldCom news -- performing better AFTER the bombshell
than before.
So what's happening? Wall Street has been able to convince
investors that if they don't buy in, they'll lose out.
That's pure BS, just take a look at this:
Wall Street Myth #1: The market has hit bottom. Wrong!
Compared to a real bottom, this market has a long way
to go ...
Take 1974's bottom, for example. The S&P sold at 7 times
earnings, 65% of the advisors in the Investor's Intelligence
Survey were bearish, equity mutual fund cash was 11.7%
of assets, and only 4% of stocks were above their 200-day
average.
Now, take a look at today's "bottom." The S&P sells at a
whopping 42 times earnings, only 35% of advisors are
bearish, equity mutual fund cash is 5.3% of assets, and
60% of stocks are above their 200-day average. At this
rate, the S&P 500 could easily be cut in half and STILL
be overvalued.
Wall Street Myth #2: Corporate profits are rebounding
nicely. Give me a break!
In a real recovery, earnings per share (EPS) drives the
price of the stock -- the more profitable a company, the
more valuable the stock; and the more valuable the stock,
the higher its price goes.
But the exact opposite is happening today -- even as stock
prices rose off their 9/11 lows, earnings continued to
decline! For example, since its post 9/11 lows, the blue-
chip Dow Industrial Average has gone up 13.1%. At the
same time, its earnings have suffered a massive 13.2%
decline!
Plus, the Dow's P/E ratio is over 26 -- far higher than
its historical average of 15. Real recoveries start with
the Dow's P/E in single digits -- which shows the Dow
still has a long, long way to fall.
Wall Street Myth #3: Consumers will pull us out of this
recession just like they did the last time. Sorry folks.
The US consumer is losing confidence, suffocating under
a mountain of debt, and going bankrupt at astonishing
rates ...
* Consumer confidence sank 3.5% this month to the lowest
level since February. It's also the biggest drop in
consumer confidence since the 9/11 terror attacks.
* Consumers carry a near-record amount of debt! US consumer
debt has soared to levels not seen in 15 years. Today, a
whopping 14.4% of their disposable income goes to pay down
credit cards, gas cards, and home mortgages.
* Personal bankruptcies are rising at catastrophic rates!
As of the first quarter of this year, bankruptcies
skyrocketed on a year over year basis for the fifth
consecutive time.
Bottom line: Consumers simply won't be able to shoulder
the weight of the economy single-handedly for much longer.
And that means ...
Investors will soon recognize Wall Street's arguments
for what they really are: a sales pitch. And as more
and more fraud cases come to light, smart investors
won't be buying.
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Plus, check out these latest developments:
* Banks and insurance companies are downplaying their
exposure, but they've lost BILLIONS in the WorldCom
blow-up.
Citigroup estimates its exposure to WorldCom's bonds
at $335 million and it is "still assessing" the
financial impact from its role as a market maker for
WorldCom's stock. Mellon Bank's exposure totals about
$100 million. American Express is losing $90 million
from WorldCom debt holdings.
The insurance industry's total loss on the deal will
likely be about $5.4 billion.
http://www.safemoneyreport.com/home/daily.asp?archive=062702
* Analysts are still playing their games. Even before
the revelation of its accounting shenanigans, WorldCom
was under investigation by the SEC for loans to a former
CEO, its debt had ballooned to $32 billion, and its
revenues had slowed to a trickle.
Still, research analysts continued to rate the company
a "strong buy" or a "buy" right up until the day it
confessed to fraud.
http://www.safemoneyreport.com/home/daily.asp?archive=062602
* The economy is NOT in recovery. Existing home sales
fell 0.3% in May, even though mortgage rates have
continued to drop. Consumer spending fell 0.1% in May
as consumers began paring back on purchases. And
consumer confidence plunged in June, indicating that
consumers aren't in the buying mood.
http://www.safemoneyreport.com/home/daily.asp?archive=062502
* The Enron fallout continues. J.P. Morgan Chase, Enron's
leading lender, is being accused of also being the
company's partner in crime. Like Enron, the effect of
WorldCom's accounting fraud will be felt for many, many
months to come.
http://www.safemoneyreport.com/home/daily.asp?archive=062402
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MadMax
06-29-2002, 12:08 PM
After the Savings and Loan fiasco a decade or so ago...we have experienced a 10 year BULLMARKET....get ready for another one...now is the time to carefully select your stocks...
Sent: Wednesday, June 26, 2002 10:24 AM
Subject: Special Market Update From Stephen Leeb
> MARKET COMMENTARY This guy usually gets things right.
>
> BY STEPHEN LEEB
>
> WorldCom has imploded.
>
> Last night's revelation that the company overstated its
> results by $3.8 billion has spurred a punishing selloff
> in the market today. The latest developments in this
> story are readily available, splashed across headlines
> everywhere, so I'll take this opportunity to focus on
> what's most important right now: the market as a whole.
>
> While the horror of the WorldCom scandal is yet another
> blow to investor confidence, it may bring about the
> kind of capitulation associated with major market
> turning points.
>
> When negative news reaches the headlines and hits
> hysterical proportions, all those who want out get out.
> The players left are the stalwart value hunters who view
> the market as a long-term play on the economy's growth--
> and that's the sort of platform from which major rallies
> are launched.
>
> While I can't say whether we're hours, days or even a
> month or two away from a major turn, I can say the odds
> have tilted ever more dramatically toward the bulls.
>
> Let me remind you of two things. First, however horrible
> the recent accounting scandals and worries about terrorism,
> the country and markets have survived comparably worse
> events in the past. In the 1973-74 period, we suffered
> through the resignation of a vice president and a president,
> which represented a major threat to our political system.
>
> During that same period we lost our economic sovereignty
> as a result of an oil embargo. Inflation and unemployment
> soared to many times today's level. Yes, stocks experienced
> a horrible bear market, but it set the stage for a stunning
> recovery that began in 1974 when unemployment and inflation
> were close to their peaks.
>
> More recently in 1990, we went through accounting scandals
> that make today's scandals look tame. Then, remember,
> virtually the entire S&L industry was cooking the books.
> And the ensuing crisis in real estate, an industry far
> more important to the economy than technology, threatened
> to bring down our entire banking industry. Indeed many
> major banks were on the brink of bankruptcy.
>
> The 1990 crisis also reached political proportions--don't
> forget the Keating Five. It was also a crisis that was
> punctuated by a war in the Persian Gulf. Our economy, our
> markets and our spirits bent but did not break. A major
> market sell off was followed by an historic bull market.
>
> While today's problems, however serious, don't rise to the
> level of those we lived through in the past, they come in
> the context of a vicious bear market. And this brings us
> to the second point: The group that's been dragging the
> rest of the market down and has experienced the brunt of
> the selling during the past couple of years is--you know
> it--the tech stocks.
>
> The crash in tech came as an historic bubble burst. Tech
> today, as measured by the Nasdaq 100, is down about 80
> percent from its high. This is a decline that in magnitude
> and duration rivals the decline in the major market averages
> during the 1929-32 period. There's very little, if any,
> air left in this bubble.
>
> Finally, for those of you who want to believe in kismet,
> today marks the 40th anniversary of the 1962 market bottom.
> That bottom, which proved to be one of the great buying
> opportunities in market history, came in the context of
> conditions not dissimilar to those that persist today.
>
> Then, the economy was growing and inflation was low. As
> is the case today, the culprit in the decline was a crisis
> in confidence. Of course, it would be foolish to try to
> pinpoint a particular day of a bottom but I can say the
> economy is sturdy, our financial institutions are sound
> and a bubble is nearly fully drained. We're much closer
> to very good times than we've been in a long time.
>
> Stephen Leeb
> Editor, Personal Finance
>
> ----------------------------------------------------------
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MadMax
07-03-2002, 12:54 AM
You to can learn how too cook the books..create companies on top of companies..the proverbial "cluster****".....check out all of these subsidiaries....an umbrella organization.... :mad:
How Adelphia hides their debt...
ACC Cable Communications FL-VA, LLC
> ACC Cable Holdings VA, Inc.
> ACC Holdings II, LLC
> ACC Investment Holdings, Inc.
> ACC Operations, Inc.
> ACC Telecommunications Holdings LLC
> ACC Telecommunications LLC
> ACC Telecommunications of Virginia LLC
> ACC-AMN Holdings, LLC
> Adelphia Acquisition Subsidiary, Inc.
> Adelphia Arizona, Inc.
> Adelphia Blairsville, LLC
> Adelphia Cable Partners, LP
> Adelphia Cablevision Associates, LP
> Adelphia Cablevision Corp.
> Adelphia Cablevisio n of Boca Raton, LLC
> Adelphia Cablevision of Fontana, LLC
> Adelphia Cablevision of Inland Empire, LLC
> Adelphia Cablevision of New York, Inc.
> Adelphia Cablevision of Newport Beach, LLC
> Adelphia Cablevision of Orange County II, LLC
> Adelphia Cablevision of Orange County, LLC
> Adelphia Cablevision of San Bernardino, LLC
> Adelphia Cablevision of Santa Ana, LLC
> Adelphia Cablevision of Seal Beach, LLC
> Adelphia Cablevision of Simi Valley, LLC
> Adelphia Cablevision of the Kennebunks, LLC
> Adelphia Cablevision of West Palm Beach III, LLC
> Adelphia Cablevision of West Palm Beach IV, LLC
> Adelphia Cablevision of West Palm Beach V, LLC
> Adelphia Cablevision, LLC
> Adelphia California Cablevision, LLC
> Adelphia Central Pennsylvania, LLC
> Adelphia Cleveland, LLC
> Adelphia Communications Corporation
> Adelphia Communications International, Inc.
> Adelphia Communications of California II, LLC
> Adelphia Communications of California III, LLC
> Adelphia Communications of California, LLC
> Adelphia Company of Western Connecticut
> Adelphia General Holdings III, Inc.
> Adelphia GP Holdings, LLC
> Adelphia GS Cable, LLC
> Adelphia Harbor Center Holdings, LLC
> Adelphia Holdings 2001, LLC
> Adelphia International II, LLC
> Adelphia International III, LLC
> Adelphia Mobile Phones, Inc.
> Adelphia of the Midwest, Inc.
> Adelphia Pinellas County, LLC
> Adelphia Prestige Cablevision, LLC
> Adelphia Telecommunications of Florida, Inc.
> Adelphia Telecommunications, Inc.
> Adelphia Wellsville, LLC
> Adelphia Western New York Holdings, LLC
> Arahova Communications, Inc.
> Arahova Holdings, LLC
> Badger Holding Corporation
> Better TV, Inc. of Bennington
> Blacksburg/Salem Cablevision, Inc.
> Brazas Communications, Inc.
> Buenavision Telecommunications, Inc.
> Cable Sentry Corporation
> California Ad Sales, LLC
> CCC-III, Inc.
> CCC-Indiana, Inc.
> CCH Indiana, LP
> CDA Cable, Inc.
> Century Advertising, Inc.
> Century Alabama Corp.
> Century Alabama Holding Corp.
> Century Australia Communications Corp.
> Century Berkshire Cable Corp.
> Century Cable Holding Corp.
> Century Cable Holdings, LLC
> Century Cable Management Corporation
> Century Cable of Southern California
> Century Cablevision Holdings, LLC
> Century Carolina Corp.
> Century Colorado Springs Corp.
> Century Colorado Springs Partnership
> Century Cullman Corp.
> Century Enterprise Cable Corp.
> Century Exchange, LLC
> Century Federal, Inc.
> Century Granite Cable Television Corp.
> Century Huntington Company
> Century Indiana Corp.
> Century Investment Holding Corp.
> Century Investors, Inc.
> Century Island Associates, Inc.
> Century Island Cable Television Corp.
> Century Kansas Cable Television Corp.
> Century Lykens Cable Corp.
> Century Mendocino Cable Television Inc.
> Century Mississippi Corp.
> Century Mountain Corp.
> Century New Mexico Cable Television
> Century Norwich Corp.
> Century Ohio Cable Television Corp.
> Century Oregon Cable Corp.
> Century Pacific Cable TV Inc.
> Century Programming, Inc.
> Century Realty Corp.
> Century Shasta Cable Television Corp.
> Century Southwest Colorado Cable Television Corp.
> Century Telecommunications, Inc.
> Century Trinidad Cable Television Corp.
> Century Virginia Corp.
> Century Voice and Data Communications, Inc.
> Century Warrick Cable Corp.
> Century Washington Cable Television, Inc.
> Century Wyoming Cable Television Corp.
> Century-ML Cable Corporation
> Century-ML Cable Venture
> Century-TCI California Communications, LP
> Century-TCI California, LP
> Century-TCI Holdings, LLC
> Chelsea Communications, Inc.
> Chelsea Communications, LLC
> Chestnut Street Services, LLC
> Clear Cablevision, Inc.
> CMA Cablevision Associates VII, LP
> CMA Cablevision Associates XI, LP
> Coral Security, Inc.
> Cowlitz Cablevision, Inc.
> CP-MDU I LLC
> CP-MDU II LLC
> E. & E. Cable Service, Inc.
> Eastern Virginia Cablevision Holdings, LLC
> Eastern Virginia Cablevision, LP
> Empire Sports Network, LP
> FAE Cable Management Corp.
> FOP Indiana, LP
> FrontierVision Access Partners, LLC
> FrontierVision Cable New England, Inc.
> FrontierVision Capital Corporation
> FrontierVision Holdings Capital Corporation
> FrontierVision Holdings Capital II Corporation
> FrontierVision Holdings, LLC
> FrontierVision Holdings, LP
> FrontierVision Operating Partners, LLC
> FrontierVision Operating Partners, LP
> FrontierVision Partners, LP
> Ft. Myers Acquisition Limited Partnership
> Ft. Myers Cablevision, LLC
> Genesis Cable Communications Subsidiary LLC
> Global Acquisition Partners, LP
> Global Cablevision II, LLC
> Grafton Cable Company
> GS Cable, LLC
> GS Telecommunications LLC
> Harron Cablevision of New Hampshire, Inc.
> Huntington CATV, Inc.
> Imperial Valley Cablevision, Inc.
> Kalamazoo County Cablevision, Inc.
> Key Biscayne Cablevision
> Kootenai Cable, Inc.
> Lake Champlain Cable Television Corporation
> Leadership Acquisition Limited Partnership
> Louisa Cablevision, Inc.
> Manchester Cablevision, Inc.
> Martha's Vineyard Cablevision, LP
> Mercury Communications, Inc.
> Mickelson Media of Florida, Inc.
> Mickelson Media, Inc.
> Montgomery Cablevision, Inc.
> Monument Colorado Cablevision, Inc.
> Mountain Cable Communications Corporation
> Mountain Cable Company, LP
> Mt. Lebanon Cablevision, Inc.
> Multi-Channel TV Cable Company
> National Cable Acquisition Associates, LP
> Olympus Cable Holdings, LLC
> Olympus Capital Corporation
> Olympus Communications Holdings, LLC
> Olympus Communications, LP
> Olympus Subsidiary, LLC
> Owensboro Indiana, LP
> Owensboro on the Air, Inc.
> Owensboro-Brunswick, Inc.
> Page Time, Inc.
> Palm Beach Group Cable Joint Venture
> Palm Beach Group Cable, Inc.
> Paragon Cable Television, Inc.
> Paragon Cablevision Construction Corporation
> Paragon Cablevision Management Corporation
> Parnassos Communications, LP
> Parnassos Holdings, LLC
> Parnassos, LP
> Pericles Communications Corporation
> Pullman TV Cable Co., Inc.
> RentaVision of Brunswick, Inc.
> Richmond Cable Television Corporation
> Rigpal Communications, Inc.
> Robinson/Plum Cablevision, LP
> S/T Cable Corporation
> Sabres, Inc.
> Scranton Cablevision, Inc.
> Sentinel Communications of Muncie, Indiana, Inc.
> Southeast Florida Cable, Inc.
> Southwest Colorado Cable, Inc.
> Southwest Virginia Cable, Inc.
> Star Cable Inc.
> Starpoint Limited Partnership
> SVHH Cable Acquisition, LP
> SVHH Holdings, LLC
> Tele-Media Company of Hopewell-Prince George
> Tele-Media Company of Tri-States, LP
> Tele-Media Investment Partnership, LP
> Telesat Acquisition Limited Partnership
> Telesat Acquisition, LLC
> The Golf Club at Wending Creek Farms, LLC
> The Main InternetWorks, Inc.
> The Westover TV Cable Co. Incorporated
> Three Rivers Cable Associates, LP
> Timotheos Communications LP
> TMC Holdings Corporation
> TMC Holdings, LLC
> Tri-States, LLC
> UCA LLC
> Upper St. Clair Cablevision, Inc.
> US Tele-Media Investment Company
> Valley Video, Inc.
> Van Buren County Cablevision, Inc.
> Warrick Cablevision, Inc.
> Warrick Indiana, LP
> Wellsville Cablevisio n, LLC
> West Boca Acquisition Limited Partnership
> Western NY Cablevision, LP
> Westview Security, Inc.
> Wilderness Cable Company
> Young's Cable TV Corp
> Yuma Cablevision, Inc.
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