Latest Rita Estimations....

[True Blue Aggie]

The latest runs of two key computer models, the GFS and GFDL, now indicate that the trough of low pressure that was expected to pick up Rita and pull her rapidly northward through Texas will not be strong enough to do so. Instead, these models forecast that Rita will make landfall near Galveston, penetrate inland between 50 and 200 miles, then slowly drift southwestward for nearly two days, as a high pressure ridge will build in to her north. Finally, a second trough is forecast to lift Rita out of Texas on Tuesday. If this scenario develops, not only will the coast receive catastrophic damage from the storm surge, but interior Texas, including the Dallas/Fort Worth area, might see a deluge of 15 - 30 inches of rain. A huge portion of Texas would be a disaster area. The models are not suggesting this at all, but is also possible that Rita may not make landfall on Saturday as expected, but pull up just short of the Texas coast and pound it for days as it waits for the next trough to pick her up. We'll have to wait for the next set of model runs due out by tomorrow morning to know better.

The 7:09 pm eye report from the hurricane hunters found a 904 mb pressure and flight level winds of 161 knots (186 mph). This pressure makes Rita the 3rd strongest Atlantic hurricane of all time. Tonight, Rita will be passing over the Loop Current, a warm eddy of water in the Gulf that aided Katrina's growth to a Category 5 hurricane. Fueled by this pool of deep warm water and an almost ideal upper level wind environment, Rita should continue to intensify until Thursday morning, when she will pass beyond the Loop Current. The eye has shrunk to 20 nm diameter from 25 nm earlier this afternoon. By the time the eye shrinks down to 10 nm, the eyewall will collapse and an eyewall replacement cycle begin, putting an end to this intensification cycle. With potentially another 12 hours to go before this happens, Rita could challenge Gilbert's 888 mb pressure record.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=135&tstamp=200509#commenttop

[Ivanhoe_Farms]

If it swings through Dallas/Ft Worth, we will be driving in a downpour all of the way home from Kansas:Bullshit

[wesman]

Holy Shiiiiteeee:eek:

It's gonna be nasty down there.....we will get a lot of rain etc, likley see some tornado activity as well. I think I'll stop watering now:hammer:

--wes

[L8 APEX]

I am not looking forward to driving with the trailer through a sh!tstorm. I may stay up north an extra day if it means a safer tow home. I stopped by Northern tool today and there was not a generator left on the shelf!!! They said two guys bought them all and took them down to Houston to scalp:throw: .

[True Blue Aggie]

Friday 23 September:

7:00A Gates open
8:00A-4:00P Drag Tech inspection
9:00A-1:30P Test and Tune
12:30P-1:45P True Street cruise
2:00P-2:45P True Street qualifying
3:15P- 4:45 P True Street eliminations
2:45P- 5:15P 1st round qualifying – all other drag classes
6:00P-8:00P BBQ and “mingle”
5:30P-10:00P Local track test & tune (free to LF participants)
10:30P Gates close

Saturday 24 September:

7:00A Gates open
7:30A-10:00A Drag Tech inspection
9:00A-12:00P 2nd & 3rd round qualifying
12:00P- 12:45P Group picture
1:30P-6:00P Drag eliminations
6:15P-6:45P Burnout contest
7:00P-7:15P Golf Cart race
7:30P-8:00P Award presentations
8:15P Gates close
8:30P-11:00P MKLO "Fuddruckers Cruise"

Sunday 25 September:

8:00A Gates open
8:15A-10:00A Drag Tech inspection
9:00A Grudge racing + "friends and family racing"
10:00A-11:45A Show judging
10:00A-12:00P "Best of Show" voting
12:30P-1:00P Truck Show awards presentation
1:00P-4:30P Show class drags + "friends and family racing"
5:00P Gates close


Depending on the storm, I might have to bug out on Sat. night, just because. I am not going to say that I am right now, but lets just all watch the weather reports for today and tomorrow and figure out what needs to be done.

[Silver_2000]

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20050922/ap_on_re_us/rita

Forecasters said Rita could be the most intense hurricane on record ever to hit Texas, and easily one of the most powerful ever to plow into the U.S. mainland. Category 5 is the highest on the scale, and only three Category 5 hurricanes are known to have hit the U.S. mainland — most recently, Andrew, which smashed South Florida in 1992.

The last major hurricane to strike the Houston area was Category-3 Alicia in 1983. It flooded downtown Houston, spawned 22 tornadoes and left 21 people dead.

[my2002lightning]

A new coworker told me today one of her girlfriends evacuated Houston and couldn't find any available hotels around DFW and has to stay temporarily in Tulsa.

[L8 APEX]

A new coworker told me today one of her girlfriends evacuated Houston and couldn't find any available hotels around DFW and has to stay temporarily in Tulsa.
If she looks good in a PR top she can stay with me. Heck we'll pick her up on the way to L Festknana .

[99WhiteBeast]

I am not looking forward to driving with the trailer through a sh!tstorm. I may stay up north an extra day if it means a safer tow home. I stopped by Northern tool today and there was not a generator left on the shelf!!! They said two guys bought them all and took them down to Houston to scalp:throw: .


I may stay a extra day as well.

Terry,
I thought you had some expercience driving in Tornado's a general mahem-didn't that G1 trip back from MI involve some nasty stuff?

[Ivanhoe_Farms]

ten day forcast for Kansas City, Kansas

http://www.weather.com/activities/other/other/weather/tenday.html?locid=USKS0298&from=weekend_topnav_undeclared

ten day forcast for Oklahoma City

http://www.weather.com/activities/other/other/weather/tenday.html?locid=USOK0400&from=36hr_topnav_undeclared

ten day forcast for Gainesville, Texas

http://www.weather.com/activities/other/other/weather/tenday.html?locid=USTX0496&from=search_10day

[Tex Arcana]

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=135&tstamp=200509#commenttop

And who is this guy, some wanna-be weather boi?? Probably stands on his roof and licks his thumb to make predictions.

Here's what NOAA.gov has to say on the matter:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT18/refresh/AL1805W5+gif/023809W_sm.gif

And I think they have just a little more experience with this than some blogger. :rolleyes:

[Silver_2000]

And who is this guy, some wanna-be weather boi?? Probably stands on his roof and licks his thumb to make predictions.

Here's what NOAA.gov has to say on the matter:


And I think they have just a little more experience with this than some blogger. :rolleyes:

Yep posted the smaller version on the other thread
Read the legend and youll see that it predicts hurricane force winds to 100-200 miles south of Dallas at 7pm Sat

[Tex Arcana]

Yep posted the smaller version on the other thread
Read the legend and youll see that it predicts hurricane force winds to 100-200 miles south of Dallas at 7pm Sat

Yeah, and a Cat 5 storm will be quite capable of driving that deeply into the state.

I figure it's gonna hit at a high-Cat4, and still drive up the state as a strong tropical storm, before breaking up in Oklahoma; but that's based on what I see in the forcast maps off of NOAA's site.

My neighborhood will likely flood come Sat and Sunday, and my neighbor across the street will wish she never moved back in. :(

[LonghornLightning]

should be interesting too down here in Austin. They said we are to expect 60-80 mph sustained winds, with gusts higher, obviously lots of rain and flooding, and i'm the possibility of tornadoes always exist....whoooohooooo.... :hammer:
I'm kind of a weather nerd so I enjoy this stuff but I wish everyone and their families the best in getting away from this and not losing everything. I'll keep you guys posted on the Austin situation, maybe I'll take some pics late fri/early sat.

[TX SVT LIGHTNING]

noticed on my commute to work this morning in N. Austin, every hotel parking lot was packed, several gas stations are out of reg 87 oct and wal mart/heb is out of bottled/jugged water.



Rick
www.austinsvt.com (http://www.austinsvt.com)

[L8 APEX]

I may stay a extra day as well.

Terry,
I thought you had some expercience driving in Tornado's a general mahem-didn't that G1 trip back from MI involve some nasty stuff?
Yes I have and that is why I respect them more. I am totally screwed towing a 24' box...

[gbgary]

Terry,
I thought you had some expercience driving in Tornado's

no, you misunderstood. it was driving WITH a tornado (in his intake). ;)

[Tex Arcana]

no, you misunderstood. it was driving WITH a tornado (in his intake). ;)
:rll:

[TX SVT LIGHTNING]

projected path keeps going further towards/into Louisiana after making landfall in Houston area. Might not see any rains in Austin area now :(

[WA 2 FST]

projected path keeps going further towards/into Louisiana after making landfall in Houston area. Might not see any rains in Austin area now :(

Yeah, it appears to be taking on a more eastern path. They said Tyler and Lufkin (which is what the map Tex put up shows) are in the center of its path as it will track northward. Even in Dallas... we'll get some rain, but it doesn't look like the winds will be high enough to do substantial damage.

I know some people have been saying we'll see 100+mph winds here in Dallas. I doubt that very seriously. Even if it hit Beaumont as a Cat 5, it will lessen rapidly once it makes landfall.

Some are saying it may drop to a low Cat 4 before it hits land. Of course no one knows for sure. ???

[AFSVT01]

i dont think abilene is even going to get a drop of the rain, but good luck to all those in the direct path of this storm.

[LonghornLightning]

yeah it's looking less and less likely it'll affect us with any significance....doesn't someone who posts on here live in lake charles....or is that another board..some guy with a Silver L?!?!? the hooters picture?

[wesman]

I know some people have been saying we'll see 100+mph winds here in Dallas. I doubt that very seriously. Even if it hit Beaumont as a Cat 5, it will lessen rapidly once it makes landfall.



not even close, winds will likely be 40-50 mph tops...it wont hit at Cat 5, it's impossible for a storm to sustain Cat 5 for an extended period of time. It hit Cat 5 way to early, so it'll be a mid-level Cat 4 when it hits.

If it continues on it's NE track it's going to hit E of Galveston and will leave Houston etc on the weak side of the hurricane.

--wes

[Tex Arcana]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/025048.shtml?5day

Dang, it's gonna stall, and might not even wash out the LFest boys... :d JUST KIDDING... damn.. take a joke whydon'tcha!! :tongue:

On a related note: the govenor of Lousisana has asked those fools that are staying behind, to mark their SS#s on their arms in indelible ink. :rll:

[dboat]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/025048.shtml?5day
On a related note: the govenor of Lousisana has asked those fools that are staying behind, to mark their SS#s on their arms in indelible ink. :rll:

This is a joke, right?
Dana

[L1nt2B]

This is a joke, right?
Dana
no joke, she did say that. I saw it on FOX....what about the gas problem? I had to go to 4 dif. stations yesturday and still had to wait in line for 1/2 an hour. By Mon. I bet its up to $4 a gallon...if you can find it :eek2:

[Silver_2000]

latest maps have it stalling CONSIDERABLY - now not expected to get this far north till monday

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT18/refresh/AL1805W_sm2+gif/085714W_sm.gif

The possibility of flooding has increased a great deal
Here are the 4 am Fri day predictions
http://www.svtgalleries.net/gallery/data/500/rita-4am-fri.jpg

and the 10 am friday predictions
http://www.svtgalleries.net/gallery/data/500/rita_10_am_fri.gif

4pm Friday predictions
http://www.svtgalleries.net/gallery/data/500/rita_4pm_fri.gif


Just saw the morning news / weather

They are predicting that little or none of the impact will hit this far west
1/2 inch rain light winds

[L-Fever]

Lower 9th ward in New Orleans flooding! Looks like they have a breach over a levee already!:hammer:

[WA 2 FST]

Doug,

Hopefully what you posted is what will happen...at least for us here in N. Texas.

Those who will get rained on for 24-48hrs straight... that will be tough.

-Wes

[Silver_2000]

I saved the 10 am prediction in the above post as well

If you compare the attachments the progress speeding across the state but stalling over texarcana

And trending further east
Doug

[Moonshine]

And trending further east

Grrrr. :hammer: I could actually use 6-10" of rain.

[gagspa]

Grrrr. :hammer: I could actually use 6-10" of rain.
Me too, just not all at once. About an inch every three days would be perfect :D

[gbgary]

down to a 3

[WA 2 FST]

and it seems to be taking a more northerly path right now, meaning it will be much farther east than at first expected. It's still a really big storm, even if its not as powerful as it once was. As far as the economic impact, fortunately it appears that Houston will be on the west side of the storm, meaning less damage (in perspective) than could have been the case. That doesn't mean it won't be bad for those who are directly in its path.

[gbgary]

what's kind of funny (tragic for some) is that all the traffic trouble, wasted gas, accidents, and fighting, the last two days is gonna be for nothing for probably 80% of the people that evacuated. the storm is weakening (cat 3) and heading further north than anticipated.

[ThunderBolt]

I believe mental anguish applied to those who stayed as well as the people who evacuated.
No doubt the people who left will be frustrated and somewhat happy at the same time as
they'll have a home to go back to.

[wesman]

Looks like we wont be getting much.....guess I'll fill the poolback up after all :rolleyes:

--wes

[my2002lightning]

Grrrr. :hammer: I could actually use 6-10" of rain.

Same here. :cool:

[Tex Arcana]

This is a joke, right?
Dana
No joke, it was on last nite's news.

[dboat]

No joke, it was on last nite's news.

IMHO, she's an idiot.. everyone is entitled to their own opinion and this one isnt politically motivated. But she is an idiot.

[my2002lightning]

Elaine and I were on 75 last night and saw this white Excursion with a trailer loaded down HEAVY with fuel drums hauling a$$ south. Lots of hotels around here full of vehicles packed solid with essentials, too.

I hear that Bourbon St. in New Orleans has sharks swimming down the streets which were swept in by the storm surge.:eek2:

[my2002lightning]

More Katrina snake-pics.:(

[wesman]

Elaine and I were on 75 last night and saw this white Excursion loaded down HEAVY with fuel drums hauling a$$ south. Lots of hotels around here full of vehicles packed solid with essentials, too.

I hear that Bourbon St. in New Orleans has sharks swimming down the streets which were swept in by the storm surge.:eek2:


WTF is that snake pic of ? That sh1t looks like an anaconda :eek:

Guess it just looks huge because there's nothing to scale it with

--wes

[my2002lightning]

Most likely it's a Cottonmouth/Water Mocassin. http://www.wf.net/~snake/moccasin.htm (http://www.wf.net/%7Esnake/moccasin.htm)

They DO get to be big snakes, though.



WTF is that snake pic of ? That sh1t looks like an anaconda :eek:

Guess it just looks huge because there's nothing to scale it with

--wes

[L-Fever]

[QUOTE=my2002lightning]Most likely it's a Cottonmouth/Water Mocassin. http://www.wf.net/~snake/moccasin.htm (http://www.wf.net/%7Esnake/moccasin.htm)


You would be correct there Ron!

[wesman]

Most likely it's a Cottonmouth/Water Mocassin. http://www.wf.net/~snake/moccasin.htm (http://www.wf.net/%7Esnake/moccasin.htm)

They DO get to be big snakes, though.

Yeah, definitely a cottonmouth.....they don't get long, but they do get fat as hell. The thing that got me when I first looked at it was the size it seemed in regards to the slab and metal gurter there.....it looked huge without anything to compare it's size too.

Also, those Cottonmouths are some feisty bastards......they actualy attack you....most snakes try to retreat, they actually chase you.

I've got a :ron: about a duckblind full of Cottonmouths when I was a boy scout, but I'll save that for another day :)

--wes